
Take away the famous ‘DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN’ election night faux pas of 1948---and the Bush-Gore-Bush-Gore-Bush roller coaster ride of 2000, and American Presidential elections have been, for the most part, true to form.
The conventional wisdom is that Joe Kennedy’s money and Richard Daley’s South Chicago cemeteries provided the needed margin to put JFK over the top in 1960, but this year could top them all. Polls, most of which have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent, have the candidates in a flat footed tie. Yet, with their internal polls telling them something different, both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney seem outwardly confident of victory next week. We’ve heard a lot about battleground states and no matter how the electoral votes are estimated, both sides seem to think that the road to the White House for the next 4 years runs through Ohio. No republican has ever been elected President without carrying Ohio. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have been there long enough to acquire a driver’s license and today the President will tour the Buckeye state with stops in 6 cities.
Ohio is an interesting state; with a heavily democratic densely populated Cleveland - another population center in Cincinnati that isn’t quite as blue - and what may be the key to the state and the election; a lot of small towns and a lot of independent thinking people. There are but 18 electoral votes at stake, but both sides say they are crucial. But here’s the rub; counting them all could take time, not hours, maybe a week or more.
Here’s why: the entire state, every registered voter, has been mailed an absentee ballot, and under state law, those votes are counted last and anyone who brings that filled out ballot to a polling place on Election Day won’t have their vote counted for a state mandated 10 days. And consider this: Ohio has nearly 8 million registered voters, yet, as recently as 1980, the margin of victory or ultimate loss.
Now here’s another fun scenario: suppose, when all the votes are counted, there is a flat tie with each candidate getting 269 votes. Deciding the next administration would fall to congress. Under the 12th amendment, the house, controlled by the GOP, would likely vote Romney, while the senate, run by the democrats, would likely opt for one of their own. Imagine Romney Biden on January 20th 2013, likely, no---possible. Sure could be an interesting few days ahead. Get out there and vote.






